By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
June 1st through November 30th is the official beginning of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This season has no inclination to adhere to climatology as it began back in May 19 with Tropical Storm Alberto forming that Saturday afternoon off the South Carolina coast. Not since 1908 has there been a storm that early before the season officially began on June 1st .There after we dealt with Tropical Storm Beryl that marked the third time on record, that two tropical cyclones reached tropical storm strength during May before the beginning of Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The Saffir-Simpson Scale shown below is a categorization of tropical cyclones based on their wind speeds, barometric pressures and storm surges in feet. This helps forecasters inform the public in a warned area of the level of the tropical weather threat. Keep in mind even a weak tropical system can unleash tremendous amounts of rain leading to loss of life or damage to property. If a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch is issued that means that inclement conditions are expected in the watch are within 48 hours. If a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning is issued that implies that preparations should rushed to completion as adverse weather conditions are anticipated within 24 hours or less.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association Forecast calls for 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
As far as early Tropical Atlantic Cyclones go, Tropical Storm Beryl was the most intense preseason storm to impact the U.S. directly on record. Beryl began as a fledgling low pressure system near the coast of South East Florida, off of Miami on May 23,2012. At Miami Beach there were wind gusts reported to near gale force (39-54mph) as it moved Northeast. On May 26,2012 as the system continued to move Northeast along the S.E. United States coastline it was classified as Subtropical Storm Beryl.
While Beryl continued to crawl off of the Carolina-Georgia-North Florida coast it began to enter a more hospitable environment conducive to further development with warmer sea surface temperatures and less wind shear aloft. Vertical wind shear has an inhibiting effect on tropical cyclones as it tends to dislocate the thunderstorms from the low level center blowing them off and not allowing the storm to organize or deepen further.
At 11pm EDT on May 27, 2012 Beryl transitioned from a subtropical system to a fully tropical system only 120 miles off of the North Florida Coast. On Sunday May 28 strong tropical storm Beryl came ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida with peak sustained winds at the time of landfall of 70mph. There was a peak wind gust recorded that evening at 73 mph in the northern part of Jacksonville Beach in Mayport.
With both Alberto and Beryl forming close to the Southeast coastline of the United States it portends that many of the systems of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season will form similarly. The areas to watch for a direct impact this year will be in the Caribbean to Florida into the Northern Gulf Coast. The next name on the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane List is Chris which weather models are hinting may come out of the disturbed weather in the Northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico over the next two weeks.
Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Other non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages.
Ron Paul replied to Newt, ” I think people when they could get 3, 4 or 5 deferments they have no right to send our kids off to war. I am trying to stop the wars, but at least I went when they called me up. The vet problem is a big one. With hundreds of thousands coming back from these wars that were undeclared, unnecessary and not winnable. We have hundreds of thousands looking for care and with epidemics of suicide coming back. If you add up all the contractors in all the wars going on in Afghanistan and Iraq we have lost 8,500 Americans with severe injuries of over 40,000. And these are undeclared Wars!! Rick keeps saying you don’t want this Libertarian stuff. I don’t bring up the word you do. I talk about the Constitution and the Constitution has rules. I don’t like it when we send our kids off to fight these wars when those individuals didn’t go themselves. Then they come up when they’re asked about it and say I don’t think I could have made a difference. I have a pet peeve, that annoys me to a great deal. Because when I see these young men and women coming back my heart weeps for them.”
Newt retorts to Ron’s reply “Dr. Paul has a long history of saying things that are inaccurate and false. The fact is I never asked for a deferment I was married with a child it was never a question.”Ron replies to Gingrich ” when I was drafted I was married I had two kids and I went.”Newt then says as people begin to applaud Paul “I wasn’t eligible for the draft. I wasn’t eligible for the draft.”
”To restore America to our freedoms. Restore America to our principles and that is individual liberty and our constitution and sound money. In doing that you have to understand economics. You can’t solve any of this economic crisis unless you know where the business cycle comes from and why you have bubbles and why they break. You have to understand that we have had a financial bubble that has been going on for 40 years it’s collapsing. Nobody quite recognizes it but were in the midst of a real big correction. The only way you can get back to growth you have to liquidate the debt. But instead of liquidating debt what we’ve done is the people who build up the debt on Wall Street and the Banks. We have had the American taxpayer bail them out. We bought it through the federal reserve and through the treasury dumped it on the American People. The middle class is now shrinking and we don’t have jobs. But if you are individual or business man, if you’re consuming everything you’re earning just to finance your debt you can’t have growth. So we have to liquidate debt. This is the reason I have called for cutting spending. The only one that is calling for real cuts. You have to have real cuts. That’s what the Republican Party use to stand for. But you can’t keep bailing out debt that’s what Japan has been doing for twenty years now and they’re still in their doldrums. We did it in the Great Depression and have been in this five years now and it has end.”
|January 21, 2012||South Carolina (primary)|
|January 31, 2012||Florida (primary)|
|February 4, 2012||Nevada (caucus)|
|February 4–11, 2012||Maine (caucus)|
|February 7, 2012||Colorado (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri
|February 28, 2012||Arizona (primary)
|March 3, 2012||Washington (caucus)|
|March 6, 2012
North Dakota (caucus)
|March 6-10, 2012||Wyoming (caucus)|
|March 10, 2012||Kansas (caucus)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
|March 13, 2012||Alabama (primary)
|March 17, 2012||Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri|
|March 20, 2012||Illinois (primary)|
|March 24, 2012||Louisiana (primary)|
|April 3, 2012||District of Columbia (primary)
|April 24, 2012||Connecticut (primary)
New York (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)
|May 8, 2012||Indiana (primary)
North Carolina (primary)
West Virginia (primary)
|May 15, 2012||Nebraska (primary)
|May 22, 2012||Arkansas (primary)
|June 5, 2012||California (primary)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)
|June 26, 2012||Utah (primary)|