Monthly Archives: June 2012
Tropical Storm Debby a Memory. Still Watching the Tropics
Tropical Storm Debby has since departed Florida, but the rains it brought just days previously were plentiful. North and Central Florida received the most,
with 15-20 inches just three days ago. It is now once again tranquil in the Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic and Caribbean.
There are two areas of disturbed weather having only a slight potential of development over the next 24-48 hours according to the National Hurricane Center.
Our first area is the remnants of what was once Tropical Storm Debby. It is now just a disorganized low pressure system 490 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The other is a disturbed area of weather in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico interacting with an upper-level low over Northern Mexico.
Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash
from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Valuable documentation, non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages. Stay ahead of the storm!!
Strengthening Tropical Storm Debby Wandering in Gulf of Mexico
As of Sunday 10 am central daylight time tropical storm Debby had sustained winds of 60mph, with higher gusts. The latest estimated minimum central pressure taken by Hurricane Reconnaissance flying near the center was 994mb or 29.35inches. Tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.The most
notable thing about Debby is when it was classified yesterday Saturday June 23, 2012 at 5pm it marked the first time in recorded weather history since 1851, that the 4th storm of any Atlantic Hurricane Season formed before July 1st. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are 1 degree above normal already for this time of year. A tropical storm warning has been issued for part of the southeast Louisiana coast and from the Mississippi-Alabama border eastward to the Florida Panhandle‘s Ochlockonee River. A tropical storm warning states that there will be tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-73mph) in 24 hours or less. A tropical storm watch is in place for South of the Suwannee River to Anclote Key Florida. That means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within the next 24-36 hours. A storm surge of 3-5ft may occur on the West Central Florida to the Alabama Gulf Coast especially at the times of high tide.
As of 10am CDT Sunday, the storm was crawling along toward the northeast at 6mph. Debby’s center was located about 140 miles SSW of Apalachicola Florida, or 190 miles ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The slow movement of the storm will lead to copious rainfall
accumulations of 3-5inches across South Florida with 10-15inches along the Northern Gulf Coast. The Florida Peninsula has already received 3-5inches of rain in the last 24 hours. There will also be a chance of isolated short lived tornadoes over the southern peninsula of Florida. Authorities there say at least one tornado has already been linked to the storm down in Collier County. Several homes were damaged and tree limbs were torn down.
Debby is already interfering with oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm system has caused nine production platforms and one drilling rig to be evacuated. This means roughly 2 percent of U.S. production has been suspended.
Unless the storm strengthens and forces more production platforms to close the reduced production is not anticipated to impact oil prices.
North Atlantic 2012 Hurricane Season Staying Active. All Eyes on Gulf of Mexico
By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
Not since weather records began in 1851 has a tropical storm ever formed that far north in the Atlantic this early in the hurricane season this past Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center . When Chris took shape, it also marked the third earliest formation of the third tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin. During the years of 1887 and 1959 has such development occurred previously. Tropical storm Chris defied
the lack of warm water and further strengthened on Thursday to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph before weakening back down to a tropical storm. Tropical storms like Chris have developed north of a latitude of 40.0 degrees, but not until August or later when the northern Atlantic waters were suitably warm enough to support such development.
As of 11 am EDT Friday Chris has become a post tropical cyclone or no longer is deemed to have tropical characteristics. Chris was located 335 miles ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving WSW at 16mph with a minimum central pressure of 990mb or 29.23in. Gale force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center. The forecast path of Post Tropical Cyclone Chris is to begin to turn toward the South and at a slower rate of speed.
If that wasn’t enough, as I discussed two weeks ago on the tropical weather post “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets a Head Start So Should You”, that the latter half of June we would see a tropical system take shape near the Yucatan Peninsula. Low and behold the dynamical models were spot on as we now have a large low pressure off the northern Yucatan coast in the Gulf of Mexico. Its associated disturbed weather is affecting the Yucatan, Northwest Caribbean Sea, South East Gulf of Mexico including Western Cuba and South Florida . This disturbance is now poised to become the fourth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
All residents along the entire Gulf Coast of the United States are urged by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida to monitor this evolving weather system. Forecasters at the N.H.C. give the low pressure area a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next day or so, as it slowly crawls north. The current movement is toward the northeast at 2mph with maximum sustained winds at 30mph. Models hint that this low will either move northeast toward the west central Gulf Coast of Florida or westward towards the Texas coast. At this time it is too early to tell the ultimate track, or strength with 100% accuracy. The fourth storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has not historically occurred in any previous season before July, since recording began 161 years ago. There is always a first time for everything and this season so far is anything but average.
Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Valuable documentation, non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages. Stay ahead of the storm!!
Can The Eurozone Weather the Financial Storm?
By Ryan Matthew Dernick
As the Eurozone continues to teeter at the edge of the precipice of an artificialized debt cliff, one can only wonder if the 100billion dollar
bailout that Spain just received actually will help them. Spain now joins Greece, Ireland and Portugal as the fourth EU country to ask for a bailout. So far, the EU and IMF have doled out over 500 billion euros to shore up debt-stricken member states.
Will the systemic present state of the Eurozone improve? So far it doesn’t seem promising, because June is the fifth consecutive month activity across the 17-nation bloc has declined, dragging down heavyweights Germany and France and likely increasing calls for the European Central Bank to take action to support the economy. Collapsing banks are not the worry in Germany but inflation of currency could hit Angela Merkel’s country moving German’s to invest in real estate.
In Europe’s most economically stricken countries, people are taking their money out of their banks as a way to protect their savings from the continent’s growing financial turmoil. Concerned that their savings could be devalued by a Bank Holiday, or that banks are on the verge of collapse and that governments cannot make good on deposit insurance, people in Greece, Spain and beyond are taking their money out of the Banks by the billions.
The looming fears of Greece exiting from the euro zone relaxed after pro-bailout parties loyal to the banks took weekend elections, though risks are increasing with Spain, the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy, will need a full blown international rescue.
An unfolding two-and-a-half year old crisis has slowed the global economy, and world leaders meeting in Mexico pressed on the euro zone to move towards a fiscal and banking union to fix the crisis that now threatens to overtake Spain.
In Europe, the United States and elsewhere we need to break the walls of ignorance and liberate “We the People” from a selfishly myopic selected few. Is it the purported Too Big to Go to Jail or is it Too Big to Fail? Similar to the ratcheting up of proposed austerity measures through bailouts in the Eurozone.
Lets not forget Jon Corzine White House Economic Adviser, former Governor of New Jersey and CEO of once M.F. Global a sub investment banking company of Jamie Dimon‘s JP Morgan. Corzine lost 1.4 billion dollars of peoples money from their segregated accounts late last year then Dimon lost almost 3 billion recently this year when the credit markets were supposedly stable. Both were met with questioning but nothing resulted from any questioning.
It would be economically prudent to reinstate The Glass Steagall Act here in the U.S., which was put in place by Franklin Delano Roosevelt after the last Great Depression in the early 20th Century to stop banks from insider trading via derivatives but was then reversed by the Clinton Administration in 1999 prior to the 2008 onset of the present recession. Is this irony or another global corporate takeover? This is not a partisan issue, or a national issue but a global issue that traverses any and all political ideologies. There needs to be more transparency on behalf of the international banking community and actual consequences for malfeasant banking practices.
Edward Bernays The Architect of Social Psycho Manipulation
By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
Adam Curtis‘ acclaimed series examines the rise of the all-consuming self against the backdrop of the Freud dynasty.
“The Century of the Self”, reveals the intricacies of psycho-manipulative social engineering through propaganda. Propaganda is a type of communication which is aimed at influencing a community toward a cause. Media utilizes propaganda by constantly dispersing certain information over a wide spectrum of mainstream media outlets (e.g.:ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and Fox News) or more recently internet social networks (e.g:Facebook and Twitter) to sequester the desired attitudes from it.
“It”, or the emotional cue contemporarily may be like the succinctly charged statement ” War on Terror” which evokes conditioned visions of 9/11. Or more recently the foiled underwear bomber. These reminders consistently played over time through all strata of media fearfully allow us to give away our 4th and 5th Amendment liberties away for invasive T.S.A. (Transportation Safety Administration) naked body scanners and pat downs at airports.
The Century of the Self tells the untold and sometimes controversial story of the growth of the mass-consumer society in Britain and the United States. How was the all-consuming self created, by whom, and in whose interests?
The Freud dynasty is at the heart of this compelling social history. Sigmund Freud, founder of psychoanalysis; Edward Bernays, who invented public relations; Anna Freud, Sigmund‘s devoted daughter; and present-day PR guru and Sigmund’s great grandson, Matthew Freud.
Sigmund Freud’s work into the bubbling and murky world of the subconscious changed the world. By introducing a technique to probe the unconscious mind, Freud provided useful tools for understanding the secret desires of the masses. Unwittingly, his work served as the precursor to a world full of political spin doctors, marketing moguls, and society’s belief that the pursuit of satisfaction and happiness is humanity’s ultimate goal.
Bernays was one of the main architects of the modern techniques of mass-consumer persuasion, using every trick in the book, from celebrity endorsement and outrageous PR stunts, to eroticising the motorcar.
His most notorious coup was breaking the taboo on women smoking by persuading them that cigarettes were a symbol of independence and freedom. But Bernays was convinced that this was more than just a way of selling consumer goods. It was a new political idea of how to control the masses. By satisfying the inner irrational desires that his uncle Freud had identified, people could be made happy and thus docile.
E.U. Oil Embargo Increases Economic Pressure on Iran
By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
The European Union will soon discontinue purchases of Iranian oil two weeks from July 1st. China, India, Japan and South Korea are under increasing geopolitical pressures from the Unites States to stop buying Iran’s oil. As of today Iran’s global oil exports are down 20%.
Between the previous barrage of sanctions brought upon Iran in regards to its ongoing nuclear ambitions and the slow clamping off of its oil exportation the Persian country is becoming economically cornered.Iran’s leaders have said they can weather this international pressure despite the difficulties imposed on them already.
Iran has purportedly shut off the G.P.S. systems on their oil tankers to hide their movements, which leads some analysts fearful of possible under the radar smuggling of their crude. Once the European boycott is initiated Iranian exports could very well be cut in half. There is an ever growing fear from the global market community that once the E.U. oil embargo is actualized upon Iran there will be a marked spike in oil prices. The reason for the worrisome speculation is that Iran usually exports 2.2million barrels of oil per day and is already down 600,000 barrels from that.
Muhammad Sahimi is a Professor of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, and holds the NIOC Chair in petroleum engineering at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. On this perceived worry he says,
” There are other oil producers very eager to fill the void in oil demand. Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq and more recently Libya have been increasing their oil production and they will be able to compensate for the amount of oil Iran will lose in exports.”
With the growing scrutiny upon Iran, European firms have stopped selling insurance on Iranian oil. This is becoming a pivotal factor in further stymieing Iran’s oil exports.
David Goldwyn former State Department Special Envoy for International Energy Affairs in reference to that factor says ” The denial of insurance to a tanker fleet is the most effective tool that we have because it does not require countries to do anything it just shuts off the access to the trade.”
As the sanctions continue to fly upon Iran only time will tell the eventual outcome from this E.U. oil embargo being firmly set in place.
Venus Transit 2012 Is Space History
By Ryan Matthew Dernick
The Venus transit that passed last night is a phenomenon, which occurs in a pattern repeated every 243 years, with pairs of transits eight years apart separated from each other by 105 or 121 years. The last transit was in 2004. Similar to a solar eclipse, the planet Venus visibly moved across the face of the sun during the event, partially blocking light from the sun to Earth.
Transit took approximately six and a half hours. If you plan on living another 150 years you shall witness the Venus Transit again in the year 2117.
Historically,transits of Venus helped astronomers gain the first realistic estimates of the size of our solar system. It was noted researcher Johannes Kepler who, in 1627, first accurately predicted a transit of Venus, which occurred four years later.
Venus has truly helped shape the way we observe the heavens at night and allowed us to gain better understanding of Space Science.
2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets a Head Start So Should You
By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
June 1st through November 30th is the official beginning of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. This season has no inclination to adhere to climatology as it began back in May 19 with Tropical Storm Alberto forming that Saturday afternoon off the South Carolina coast. Not since 1908 has there been a storm that early before the season officially began on June 1st .There after we dealt with Tropical Storm Beryl that marked the third time on record, that two tropical cyclones reached tropical storm strength during May before the beginning of Atlantic Hurricane Season.
The Saffir-Simpson Scale shown below is a categorization of tropical cyclones based on their wind speeds, barometric pressures and storm surges in feet. This helps forecasters inform the public in a warned area of the level of the tropical weather threat. Keep in mind even a weak tropical system can unleash tremendous amounts of rain leading to loss of life or damage to property. If a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch is issued that means that inclement conditions are expected in the watch are within 48 hours. If a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warning is issued that implies that preparations should rushed to completion as adverse weather conditions are anticipated within 24 hours or less.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association Forecast calls for 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
As far as early Tropical Atlantic Cyclones go, Tropical Storm Beryl was the most intense preseason storm to impact the U.S. directly on record. Beryl began as a fledgling low pressure system near the coast of South East Florida, off of Miami on May 23,2012. At Miami Beach there were wind gusts reported to near gale force (39-54mph) as it moved Northeast. On May 26,2012 as the system continued to move Northeast along the S.E. United States coastline it was classified as Subtropical Storm Beryl.
While Beryl continued to crawl off of the Carolina-Georgia-North Florida coast it began to enter a more hospitable environment conducive to further development with warmer sea surface temperatures and less wind shear aloft. Vertical wind shear has an inhibiting effect on tropical cyclones as it tends to dislocate the thunderstorms from the low level center blowing them off and not allowing the storm to organize or deepen further.
At 11pm EDT on May 27, 2012 Beryl transitioned from a subtropical system to a fully tropical system only 120 miles off of the North Florida Coast. On Sunday May 28 strong tropical storm Beryl came ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida with peak sustained winds at the time of landfall of 70mph. There was a peak wind gust recorded that evening at 73 mph in the northern part of Jacksonville Beach in Mayport.
With both Alberto and Beryl forming close to the Southeast coastline of the United States it portends that many of the systems of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season will form similarly. The areas to watch for a direct impact this year will be in the Caribbean to Florida into the Northern Gulf Coast. The next name on the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane List is Chris which weather models are hinting may come out of the disturbed weather in the Northwest Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico over the next two weeks.
Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Other non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages.
What the Frack is Going On
By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
With the noticeable and precipitous increases in seismic activity globally one can only wonder if fracking may have had a hand in some of these geologic events. Hydraulic fracturing or fracking is a means of natural gas extraction employed in deep natural gas well drilling. Once a well is drilled, millions of gallons of water, sand and proprietary chemicals are injected, under high pressure, into a well. The pressure fractures the shale and props open fissures that enable natural gas to flow more freely out of the well. This invasive Energy extraction drilling procedure delves as deep as three miles beneath the surface of the earth for the sole goal of what may be deemed as irresponsible energy sequestration practices.
Dr. Mike Blanpied of the U.S. Geological Survey, who serves as the associate coordinator of the U.S.G.S. Earthquake Hazards program said this in regards to fracking and its possible relation to the seismic event that occurred last summer in Virginia with a 5.8M earthquake that occurred on August 23, 2011.
He says “The thing that can induce large earthquakes is the high pressure fluid injection, waste fluid injection, that’s done in some places. However, as far as we’re aware there’s not really the mining or the fluid injection processes going on in Virginia that would have connected this earthquake with anything like that.”
This high pressured fluid injection that Dr. Mike Blanpied warned of causing earthquakes is just what Youngstown, Ohio validated this pass March.
The Ohio Department of Natural Resources, which overseas the oil and gas industry, said in a report that the state should pass a new law prohibiting drilling at what is called the Precambrian basement rock level (a depth that begins at 9,184 ft) and would require companies to “review existing geologic data” before drilling.
The agency also said it wants the state to require “continuous pressure monitoring systems with automatic shut-off” that monitor the pressure levels of injected waste fluids that would be controlled remotely by the state.
The report found “geological evidence” suggesting that high pressure fluid from a well near an underground fault caused a series of earthquakes in the Youngstown, Ohio area over the last year.
For each fracking operation 80-300 tons of chemicals may be used. Presently, the natural gas industry does not have to disclose the chemicals used, but scientists have identified volatile organic compounds (VOCs) such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene.
These volatile chemicals can eventually leach into the ground water table contaminating it through the many new fissures from hydrolic fracking.
According to the Centers for Disease Control the harmful human effects from benzene are that “it works by causing cells not to work correctly. For example, it can cause bone marrow not to produce enough red blood cells, which can lead to anemia. Also, it can damage the immune system by changing blood levels of antibodies and causing the loss of white blood cells.The seriousness of poisoning caused by benzene depends on the amount, route, and length of time of exposure, as well as the age and preexisting medical condition of the exposed person.”
In a United States Environmental Protection Agency Assessment of the risks on the human body from Toluene they state,
“The central nervous system (CNS) is the primary target organ for toluene toxicity in both humans and animals for acute (short-term) and chronic (long-term) exposures. CNS dysfunction and narcosis have been frequently observed in humans acutely exposed to toluene by inhalation; symptoms include fatigue, sleepiness, headaches, and nausea. CNS depression has been reported to occur in chronic abusers exposed to high levels of toluene. Chronic inhalation exposure of humans to toluene also causes irritation of the upper respiratory tract and eyes, sore throat, dizziness, and headache. Human studies have reported developmental effects, such as CNS dysfunction, attention deficits, and minor craniofacial and limb anomalies, in the children of pregnant women exposed to toluene or mixed solvents by inhalation. Reproductive effects, including an association between exposure to toluene and an increased incidence of spontaneous abortions, have also been noted.”
Some experts suggest a link between the slew of earthquakes in Italy and fracking now with a death toll up to 17 from the May 20th 6.0 magnitude 6km SSW of Felonica, May 29th’s 5.8mag. 3km SSE of Medolla then 5.4mag. 3km NW of town of Carvezzo.
Sunday night June 3rd at 9:20pm Italy saw another quake of a magnitude 4.8 in Northern Italy only adding to the uneasiness felt by the citizens across Italy.Whether it is fracking that is responsible for the uptick in seismicity, natural geophysical cyclical internal processes at work here or a combination of the two the data available is compelling.