North Atlantic 2012 Hurricane Season Staying Active. All Eyes on Gulf of Mexico
By: Ryan Matthew Dernick
Not since weather records began in 1851 has a tropical storm ever formed that far north in the Atlantic this early in the hurricane season this past Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center . When Chris took shape, it also marked the third earliest formation of the third tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin. During the years of 1887 and 1959 has such development occurred previously. Tropical storm Chris defied
the lack of warm water and further strengthened on Thursday to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph before weakening back down to a tropical storm. Tropical storms like Chris have developed north of a latitude of 40.0 degrees, but not until August or later when the northern Atlantic waters were suitably warm enough to support such development.
As of 11 am EDT Friday Chris has become a post tropical cyclone or no longer is deemed to have tropical characteristics. Chris was located 335 miles ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving WSW at 16mph with a minimum central pressure of 990mb or 29.23in. Gale force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center. The forecast path of Post Tropical Cyclone Chris is to begin to turn toward the South and at a slower rate of speed.
If that wasn’t enough, as I discussed two weeks ago on the tropical weather post “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets a Head Start So Should You”, that the latter half of June we would see a tropical system take shape near the Yucatan Peninsula. Low and behold the dynamical models were spot on as we now have a large low pressure off the northern Yucatan coast in the Gulf of Mexico. Its associated disturbed weather is affecting the Yucatan, Northwest Caribbean Sea, South East Gulf of Mexico including Western Cuba and South Florida . This disturbance is now poised to become the fourth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
All residents along the entire Gulf Coast of the United States are urged by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida to monitor this evolving weather system. Forecasters at the N.H.C. give the low pressure area a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next day or so, as it slowly crawls north. The current movement is toward the northeast at 2mph with maximum sustained winds at 30mph. Models hint that this low will either move northeast toward the west central Gulf Coast of Florida or westward towards the Texas coast. At this time it is too early to tell the ultimate track, or strength with 100% accuracy. The fourth storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has not historically occurred in any previous season before July, since recording began 161 years ago. There is always a first time for everything and this season so far is anything but average.
Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Valuable documentation, non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages. Stay ahead of the storm!!