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T. D. Nine in The Atlantic to become Tropical Storm Isaac, while southeast U.S. Keeps a Watchful Eye

By Ryan Matthew Dernick

According to the National Hurricane Center Tropical Depression Nine formed earlier today in the Atlantic, it is currently about 700 miles east of the

The large and newly formed Tropical Depression Nine Spells immediate concern for the Caribbean and soon thereafter the Southeast United States by as early as Sunday evening. Models forecast the Depression to become Tropical Storm Isaac later today and a Hurricane in 48 hours.

Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions are favorable for intensification and the depression is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Tropical storm warnings are in now effect for the Lesser Antilles and watches have been posted for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

NOAA forecasters earlier this month increased the number of storms forecast and say they expect a total of 12 to 17 tropical storms, with as many as five to eight hurricanes, for the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season from June 1 to Nov. 30. Two to three of storms could become major hurricanes. It was only back in May when forecasters had initially only predicted nine to 15 tropical storms, with as many as four to eight hurricanes

So far this year there have been five tropical storms and three hurricanes with the most recent being Hurricane Gordon that just days ago passed through the Southern Azores. Since then it has become extra tropical as its remnants move ENE though Portugal.

With not one major hurricane to date yet for this Atlantic Hurricane Season

T.D. Nines Projected Path Shows that core of the storm will move westward through the Lesser Antilles while staying just South of Puerto Rico. As it continues to traverse west along the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Hati it will begin to feel the tug northward by the Deepening Trough across the Eastern United States. In response to that strengthening trough the High Pressure Ridge over Florida and Bahamas will weaken turning then Hurricane Isaac Northwest through Central Cuba.

this storm may change that.

South Florida residents and visitors in particular need to remain vigilant on updates According to The National Weather Service forecast Office in Miami, Florida. Weather Models are continuing to indicate it is becoming more likely that South Florida may be directly impacted late this weekend into early next week by this developing tropical cyclone.

Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Other non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages.

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Strengthening Tropical Storm Debby Wandering in Gulf of Mexico

As of Sunday 10 am central daylight time tropical storm Debby had sustained winds of 60mph, with higher gusts. The latest estimated minimum central pressure taken by Hurricane Reconnaissance flying near the center was 994mb or 29.35inches.  Tropical storm force winds extend 200 miles mainly to the north and east of the center.The most

Sunday 11am EDT Visible Satellite of Tropical Storm Debby. Courtesy of NOAA

notable thing about Debby is when it was classified yesterday Saturday June 23, 2012 at 5pm it marked the first time in recorded weather history since 1851, that the 4th storm of any Atlantic Hurricane Season formed before July 1st. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Gulf of Mexico are 1 degree above normal already for this time of year. A tropical storm warning has been issued for part of the southeast Louisiana coast and from the Mississippi-Alabama border eastward to the Florida Panhandle‘s Ochlockonee River. A tropical storm warning states that there will be tropical storm conditions (winds of 39-73mph) in 24 hours or less.  A tropical storm watch is in place for South of the Suwannee River to Anclote Key Florida. That means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within the next 24-36 hours. A storm surge of 3-5ft may occur on the West Central Florida to the Alabama Gulf Coast especially at the times of high tide.

As of 10am CDT Sunday, the storm was crawling along toward the northeast at 6mph. Debby’s center was located about 140 miles SSW of Apalachicola Florida, or 190 miles ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. The slow movement of the storm will lead to copious rainfall

Debby may eventually impact Louisiana by Wednesday According to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Track as of 10 am CDT Sunday June 24,2012. Though a group of other weather models take Debby to the east, or northeast instead toward Apalachicola to Tampa, Florida. This is in response to a digging trough north of the storm diving southeast toward the north east Atlantic seaboard.

accumulations of 3-5inches across South Florida with 10-15inches along the Northern Gulf Coast. The Florida Peninsula has already received 3-5inches of rain in the last 24 hours. There will also be a chance of isolated short lived tornadoes over the southern peninsula of Florida. Authorities there say  at least one tornado has already been linked to the storm down in Collier County. Several homes were damaged and tree limbs were torn down.

Debby is already interfering with oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. The storm system has caused nine production platforms and one drilling rig to be evacuated. This means roughly 2 percent of U.S. production has been suspended.

Unless the storm strengthens and forces more production platforms to close the reduced production is not anticipated to impact oil prices.

North Atlantic 2012 Hurricane Season Staying Active. All Eyes on Gulf of Mexico

By: Ryan Matthew Dernick

Not since weather records began in 1851 has a tropical storm ever formed that far north in the Atlantic this early in the hurricane season this past Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center . When Chris took shape, it also marked the third earliest formation of the third tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin. During the years of 1887 and 1959 has such development occurred previously.  Tropical storm Chris defied

1st Hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Hurricane Chris Thursday June 21, 2012 as it moved North Northeast well off the South East Canadian Coastline

the lack of warm water and further strengthened on Thursday to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75mph before weakening back down to a tropical storm. Tropical storms like Chris have developed north of a latitude of 40.0 degrees, but not until August or later when the northern Atlantic waters were suitably warm enough to support such development.

As of 11 am EDT Friday Chris has become a post tropical cyclone or no longer is deemed to have tropical characteristics. Chris was located 335 miles ESE of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving WSW at 16mph with a minimum central pressure of 990mb or 29.23in. Gale force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center. The forecast path of Post Tropical Cyclone Chris is to begin to turn toward the South and at a slower rate of speed.

If that wasn’t enough, as I discussed two weeks ago on the tropical weather post “2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Gets a Head Start So Should You”, that the latter half of June we would see a tropical system take shape near the Yucatan Peninsula. Low and behold the dynamical models were spot on as we now have a large low pressure off the northern Yucatan coast in the Gulf of Mexico. Its associated disturbed weather is affecting the Yucatan, Northwest Caribbean Sea, South East Gulf of Mexico including Western Cuba and South Florida . This disturbance is now poised to become the fourth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Large low pressure system to become next 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season named storm (Debby) over the next 24-72 hours. Friday Afternoon IR Satellite Image Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.

All residents along the entire Gulf Coast of the United States are urged by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida to monitor this evolving weather system.  Forecasters at the N.H.C. give the low pressure area a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next day or so, as it slowly crawls north. The current movement is toward the northeast at 2mph with maximum sustained winds at 30mph. Models hint that this low will either move northeast toward the west central Gulf Coast of Florida or westward towards the Texas coast. At this time it is too early to tell the ultimate track, or strength with 100% accuracy. The fourth storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season has not historically occurred in any previous season before July, since recording began 161 years ago. There is always a first time for everything and this season so far is anything but average.

Make sure to monitor the latest tropical weather forecasts or news and be prepared before the storm is at your door. Have a Hurricane Preparedness plan in place for you and your family. The up two week supply of essentials are Canned Foods, Bottled Water, Weather Radio, Batteries, First Aid Kit, Multivitamins, Sunscreen,Extra Cash from ATM’s, Bug Repellant, Flashlights, Valuable documentation, non-perishable food items, extra gas for generators or vehicles as gas stations will not work after a storm passes due to power outages. Stay ahead of the storm!!